The secret of Betfair
It's always interesting to see how other people operate on Betfair.
Here we follow a discussion started by a betfair bot who asked for five
secrets of success on the exchanges.
I'll give you one.
Have an opinion based on objective assessment.
Best bots for betfair
If your looking for an answer, always choose more simplicity and less complication in your calculations
Patience and discipline.
Listen to others, but make your own decisions.
You are giving me the givens. I'm talking about the irrefutable laws not the behavioural characteristics or a good exchanger.
Actually, another vital component is simply having enough free time to put into it.
Some good suggestions above.
No luck required though.
Break the rules, or more correctly; try and break the rules and that ultimately means you conclude on new ones.
Perhaps a better way of saying break the rules is:
Think outside of the box. That comes back to the idea of creativity/imagination.
Ricky, if it weren't for events beyond my control I probably wouldn't be
on here trading at all. Also, one sometimes tries ideas and finds they
do much better than they ever should do, because by luck you have
stumbled across something very important.
Well, without getting to weird pumpkin.
I'd say that when "one sometimes tries ideas and finds they do much
better than they ever should do", is not luck. But applied effort at
breaking the rules or thinking outside the box. Whatever you call it,
ideas like that are certainly can have a positive impact.
"You are giving me the givens. I'm talking about the irrefutable laws not the behavioural characteristics or a good exchanger."
The first rule.
There are no rules.
Yes, it is part of the creative process. It's a matter of definition I
suppose. One has ideas, tries things, some work, some don't, some work
much better than expected. Perhaps not luck, but the outcome of the
process. I feel I have had luck at times, but you could look at it as
all being a result of one natural process.
Creators of good luck don't see a mistake as a failure. Instead, a
mistake is an opportunity for learning. Thomas Edison is the classic
example. More than 1,000 attempts to invent the first long-lasting
electric light bulb led to bulbs that only stayed lit for a few minutes.
One of Edison's colleagues asked him, "Mr. Edison, don't you feel you
are a failure?" Lacking any sense of vanity, he answered, "Not at all.
Now, I definitely know more than a thousand ways how NOT to make a light
Sure enough, just a few days later, he turned his inspiration into a
practical concept. By the way, the very first light bulb was invented by
Sir Joseph Wilson Swan, who demonstrated the theoretical concept but
gave up trying to develop a practical application after only three
attempts. By contrast, Edison made his own good luck and designed a
working light bulb.
First rule about Betfair is you do not talk about Betfair,second rule about betfair is you DO NOT talk about Betdaq.
I don't believe in luck as I don't believe in coincidence.
There are things that appear to be a coincidence and things that appear to be luck.
However I do accept that given the Newtonian science taught in education
that 99% of people will disagree with me, and what is more, that there
is little change of conveying anything to alter peoples perspective.
It's not something that you can know through the intellect, but rather
through observtion and experience.
What I call luck and is increasingly called in research situations, is
the influence of so called coincidences and therefore the creating of
your own luck.
BoosterRooster, May I ask why?
The Sound Man
1.Enter low risk trades. (Get Value)
2.Cut losses short, let profits run.
3.Keep stakes relatively small.
4.Withdraw profits regularly.
Here's my view...no real secrets just qualities
The secret is to look for value.
Know your subject you are betting on.
Formulate an opinion and stick to it.
Cut your losses when bet goes against you.
If you can lay off cheaply in a sport or horse race with lot of time still left do so.
Money management is key.
Build profits gradually and progressively.
Don't be afraid to ask for a better price...and don't take what layers offer you always.
Don't chase a false price in first place...if price is unacceptably short lay it.
Discipline discipline discipline.
Don't bet more you can afford to lose.
Bet in-running as much as you can especially near the business end of
games e.g. football, basketball, cricket - you will usually get the
winner and minimise lots of losing bets.
Honestly, I am a loser!
A fluctuating price looks a good thing to utilise, such as in a horse
race when if you bet or lay and the price moves against you it usually
comes back , so don't panic. That is in races where the betting is well
Don't be drawn into markets such as next manager where you are likely to
bet more and more candidates and end up backing to save your stake, and
lose it !
Have a definite objective (most important) know what you're looking for .
Have an understanding and knowledge of the sport and the market so you can spot a RICK IN THE PRICES.
Talk less and do more .
There's only one rule, and that is ONLY bet when, in your opinion, the price is wrong.
If you're trying out a new idea, especially in a new sport, do it at
least 5 times in small size before going to your usual level.
Keep the wife muzzled and locked in the loft - minimising needless interruptions
Keep honest detailed records.
Don't chase losers.
Be prepared to turn off for a week.
'Money management' has been mentioned several times during thread. Would anyone care to elaborate? Sounds a bit cliched to me.
Thin and Crispy
1. Buy a comfy chair.
2. Build a Bot.
3. Switch Bot on.
4. Watch money roll in.
5. Sit in comfy chair and think of reasons why you shouldn't pay income tax.
1) Never stop learning, never consider yourself a master.
2) It can't be done.
1. Join before circa 2003
2. Deposit some money
3. Have an edge.
4. Have balls of steel but don't gamble
5. Make a profit
Thin and Crispy, answer me this:
If the bots are so brilliant why do they disappear (never, ever to
return... I dare you to come back) when someone works out how to beat
Stop laying the winning outsiders.
I have another rule that I've recently given myself ....... To enjoy it !
... Not to lose the enthusiasm ... When i used to trade/lay horses I
really hated it at times (& i mean really) ... since I've quit that
(well just about) I'm a lot happier about my betting/trading long term !
To get the advantage of the odds level stakes has great appeal,
especially on the outsiders. But of course it takes lots of patience , I
suspect that not too many people are that patient. Then there is the
'best of both worlds' bet. An outsider for value and short price to save
Discipline don't lose your head. You have to be selective.
Call yourself a real pro.
Value + Discipline = ££££